Thanks for reaching out to me about the Fall market! I’m happy to weigh in and offer a real time overview of the current field. The average 30 year mortgage recently rose 25 basis points to 7.28%. The impact of interest rates on the purchase market is real. With rates floating upward, the market shifts to either a neutral market or a buyer’s market, depending on the value of your specific home. Based on supply and demand principles, a neutral market can translate to sellers lowering their asking price to close a deal and also openly negotiating inspection concerns. A neutral market means neither the buyer nor the seller controls the terms of the deal. In a buyer’s market the buyer is truly driving the transaction to a threshold the seller is willing to accept.

I am starting to see offers in which buyers ask for closing cost credits and mortgage rate buydowns from seller proceeds. An $800,000 mortgage can get a permanent 1-point buydown for about 4 points or $32,000. It’s a new world indeed. It’s actually a great time to buy, as sellers will grow accustomed to the market and become more fortified over time. The transitioning market often offers the best opportunities.

Statewide active listings rose 18.1% year over year and price-reduced listings rose 26%. This is listing-side data and not proof that closed values fell, which certainly rings true in some of the state’s more sought-after communities. Concord is a highly segmented luxury market: inventory is not abundant but is increasing steadily this fall. Homes are selling, however, market times are getting longer and aspirational pricing is getting punished.

I want to offer some clarity. Consumers register the news headlines that interest rates are increasing but a quarter-point move only impacts an $800,000 mortgage payment by about $137 a month. That said, since August that same payment has increased by $340 a month. For some, this isn’t a reason to hesitate buying their dream house, but for others it necessitates a lifestyle change.

If a market segment has low inventory today that does not guarantee a fast sale if a home is aspirationally priced. Pricing correctly is everything in this market. For some, this means setting an asking price below the town’s assessed value based on the home’s current condition or required updates. For others, the assessed value does not reflect actual market value and could be much higher. I can certainly offer an opinion to anyone planning their finances or thinking through their life options. If you are thinking of bringing your home to market in the coming months or years I am here to offer you guidance. I live in a world of confidentiality. When I meet with people, no one ever knows we met or knows your business. I want to be 100% clear about that. I may even park down the street if you’re in a village district and walk to your front door, simply because I do not want the neighbors to see my car parked outside your home. That is how conscious I am about confidentiality.

I also want to share one last idea. When you hear the news report that a market is down 7%, as they are saying about Middlesex County, that is not a valid metric. The decline cited in the news cycle often relates to median asking price, not repeat-sale value. It could simply be that the mix of Fall listings differs year over year. Neighborhood or like-kind closed sales and current direct competition remain the decision tools when it comes to understanding your home’s value. In addition, the price that you see on Zillow may not be accurate or realistic so please do not depend on what you see there.  I can help you determine the actual value for the season you are hoping to sell in.

Price cuts do not always mean we are in a buyer’s market if you are buying. The buyer’s agents on my team can help determine a home’s value proposition and use data to guide your offer price. Call us for buyer representation. You will find our process data-based and refreshing. We have the experience, market share and commitment to you and your family that reflects only the best practices regarding our fiduciary responsibilities to keep your best interests in mind at all times.

This Fall is without question a clear indication of a changing market for the spring. As the numbers become more reliable, I will report back with a clear picture of what to expect moving forward. Today’s picture is fuzzy in our local market and the year-end data will tell the tale. Let’s wait for the data. The Fall is still playing out and it is often a market where home buying decisions are made late in the season.

Hope this fills in some color on the market but the full painting will be visible in the coming months. Thanks for your question. Keep them coming please.